美联储宣布加息25个基点(美联储宣布加息25个基点,预计今年可能再加息六次!)

内容来源：维度新闻更新时间：2023-06-01 06:36:03

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测。结果就是美联储所谓的“点阵图”——直观地表示有多少成员认为利率将在短期、中期和长期内达到给定水平。以下是美联储在声明中公布的最新目标：这是九月份的情况：不过，官员们现在预计明年会有两次加息，这是一次下调，但仍高于目前市场对明年不会进一步加息的预期。会后声明的措辞并非完全温和。该委员会继续发表声明称，进一步加息将是适当的，不过它确实略微缓和了语气。声明称，“委员会认为，联邦基金利率目标区间的进一步逐步上调，将与经济活动持续扩张、就业市场状况强劲以及中期通胀接近委员会2%的目标相一致。”与11月会后声明相比，唯一的变化是增加了“一些”来描述未来利率变动的轨迹，并表示现在“判断（judges）”加息是适当的，而11月的声明是“预期（expects）”。在加息的同时，投资者一直在关注制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会未来的走向。在本周为期两天的会议召开之前，该委员会一直在指出2019年还会有三次行动，2020年可能还会有一次。随着金融环境收紧，以及人们担心美联储行动过快，这种情况发生了变化。股市指数已进入调整区间，今年基本为负值。对于那些希望看到更温和前景的人，该委员会的一个建议是，它保证将“继续监测全球经济和金融发展，并评估它们对经济前景的影响”。这从根本上强化了美联储官员最近的公开声明，即他们在做出未来利率决定时将依赖于数据。联邦公开市场委员会还将长期基金利率展望从9月的3%下调至本月的2.8%。2019年的预测从3.1%下降到2.9%，2020年和2021年的预测也从3.4%下降到3.1%。基金利率与大多数消费者债务挂钩，尤其是信用卡和可调整利率贷款。降低了GDP的预期投票结果显示，没有人反对加息，但各委员的估计“点阵图”显示，委员之间存在一些分歧。6个成员仍预计明年将有3次加息，低于9月的9个，当时官员们最后一次发布了他们的预测。除了对利率的温和估计，该委员会还略微下调了对GDP和通胀的预测。目前预计，2018年全年GDP将增长3%，较9月下降0.1个百分点，2019年将增长2.3%，下降0.2%。不过，官员们将长期预估从9月的1.8%上调至1.9%。不过，总的来说，美联储官员对经济增长并不担心。今年GDP平均每季度增长3.3%，亚特兰大联邦储备银行预计第四季度将增长2.9%。虽然市场担心美国可能会受到全球经济放缓的影响，但联邦公开市场委员会的声明并没有显示出多少担忧。官员们继续把经济增长描述为“强劲增长”，而对经济活动其它部分的描述也保持不变。经济预测摘要确实指出，整体通胀率的增长速度预计将低于9月份的估计，从2018年的2.1%下滑至1.9%，从2019年的2%下滑至1.9%。长期预期仍为2%。市场表现利率决议声明发布后，美元指数短线上涨；10年期美债收益率稳定在2.832%；2年美债收益率短线上涨，从2.668%上涨至2.694%；油价缩窄涨幅；标普500指数和纳指转跌。截至北京时间周四凌晨03:07，美元指数回吐部分涨幅，报96.88，日内下跌0.19%，此前一度涨至96.96。10年期美债收益率下跌至2.81%，触及5月30日以来最低；2年期美债收益率回吐此前部分涨幅，报2.664%。现货黄金下跌0.3%至1245.56美元/盎司。举报打开app阅读更多精彩内容热点新闻IfengAmgr.start()